Maseru ___ As global education funding faces steep cuts, an estimated six million additional children could be out of school by the end of 2026, around one-third of them in humanitarian settings, United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) warned in a new analysis released this week.

UNICEF reports that Official Development Assistance (ODA) for education is projected to fall by 24 per cent from 2023 with just three donor governments accounting for nearly 80 per cent of the cuts. Such a decline would push the number of out-of-school children worldwide from 272 million to 278 million, the equivalent of emptying every primary school in Germany and Italy combined, the organisation says.

“Every dollar cut from education is not just a budgetary decision, it’s a child’s future hanging in the balance,” said UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell.

“Education, especially in emergency settings, often serves as a lifeline, connecting children to essential services like health, protection, and nutrition. It also provides the strongest opportunity for a child to escape poverty and build a better life.”

According to the analysis, West and Central Africa faces the sharpest impact, with 1.9 million children at risk of losing out, while the Middle East and North Africa could see an increase of 1.4 million out-of-school children, alongside major rollbacks in all other regions.

The analysis finds that 28 countries are projected to lose at least a quarter of the education assistance they rely on for pre-primary, primary, and secondary schooling.

Furthermore, the organisation points out that primary education is expected to be hit hardest around the world, with funding set to fall by a third, deepening the learning crisis and putting affected children at risk of losing an estimated US$164 billion in lifetime earnings.

In humanitarian settings, where education goes beyond learning, offering life-saving support, stability, and a sense of normalcy for traumatized children, funding could drop sharply, and in some cases, cutting the equivalent of at least 10 per cent of the national education budget.

It further notes that essential services such as school feeding programmes, sometimes a child’s only nutritious meal of the day, could see funding slashed by more than half, while support for girls’ education is also set to decline significantly.

It is predicted that wide cuts at the system level will also undermine governments’ ability to make evidence-based plans, adequately support teacher development, and monitor learning outcomes. This means that even children who remain in school could see their learning suffer, with at least 290 million students across all regions projected to face a decline in education quality.

UNICEF urges donor and partner countries to act now to protect education by rebalancing education assistance to be more equitable and effective with a minimum of 50 per cent directed to least developed countries, safeguarding humanitarian education funding and prioritizing education as a lifesaving intervention alongside other essential services, focusing education assistance on foundational learning, concentrating on early childhood and primary education where the returns are the highest, simplifying global financing architecture in line with the UN80 Initiative to improve efficiencies, expanding innovative financing without replacing core funding to education.